http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html Sometime after lunch today, around $6 billion - or roughly a trillion forints - of perceived value was added to the shares of Yahoo!, on news that Microsoft may be planning a takeover of the deep-rooted but recently-troubled portal company.... en-us Erik 2007-05-04T15:27:16+01:00 http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?98154#comments "People lost a lot of money" írja a Webisztán a Gizmodót idézve. Hogy ez mekkora hülyeség már (szerintem). Az egész 4 milliárd dollár általában véve is eleve virtuális pénz volt/van/lesz, amíg valaki meg nem próbálja készpénzre váltani. Konkrétan ezen a történeten meg a leginkább azok buktak (de még az ő esetük is vitatható, pl. nem tudjuk, mennyin vették a részvényt), akik az esés hallatán felkapták a telefont, és azonnal eladták a papírjaikat, nehogy azok még jobban essenek. Na, ők meg is érdemlik. A többiek meg legfeljebb egy érdekes árkot látnak majd utólag a grafikonon, de az nem fogja zavarni őket. 2007-05-17T13:26:45+01:00 http://kispad.hu/mt/beleszolasok.cgi?entry_id=11743 ervin http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?98154#comments http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?98152#comments Ugyanez fordítva: hogyan esik egy pletyka hatására 4 _milliárd_ dollárt az Apple értéke? http://webisztan.blog.hu/2007/05/17/a_hireszteles_ereje 2007-05-17T12:59:02+01:00 http://kispad.hu/mt/beleszolasok.cgi?entry_id=11743 eszpee http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?98152#comments http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97864#comments Actually I do not get why the media was selling this news (now down the drain) as the new entity would be a 'rival' to Google. As far as I understand, size does not really matter in this internet search / advertising business. What matters is the technology, how comfortable and useful is the interface to the end user. Switching sides is one click away. Microsoft had some hopeless trials to compete with GOOG, but who would switch to a heavy and slow search engine from a thin and quick one, even if it is full with the latest Ajax hype? (I already had to think five minutes to dig up its name...) Same applies to Yahoo's miserable mail (have a look on its beta). Or have a look on www.yahoo.com. If I want to search, I do not want to download a bloathed heavywheight page with news and so. I just want to search as quick as possible. So if MSFT does not have the technology nor the idea to hit Google, and YHOO does not have it, how come anyone thinks that their merger will miraculously bring in the missing element? (As long as they are not complementers to each other technically, but they are not.) 2007-05-07T15:00:27+01:00 http://kispad.hu/mt/beleszolasok.cgi?entry_id=11743 NagyGa1 http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97864#comments http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97838#comments Hm, Reuters is a célkeresztben van: http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,,2073214,00.html 2007-05-06T22:21:39+01:00 http://kispad.hu/mt/beleszolasok.cgi?entry_id=11743 Dr. Minorka http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97838#comments http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97819#comments I mean traces on Kispad. :) I wasn't very popular with that. 2007-05-06T13:25:18+01:00 http://kispad.hu/mt/beleszolasok.cgi?entry_id=11743 NagyGa1 http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97819#comments http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97818#comments Same here. There are some traces of me advocating that there is no way GOOG can worth the current price. There are traces of me losing quite a piece of money on GOOG shorts in the past. :) So now even though I fully agree, I stay out of GOOG shorts for a while (1.5 years now). But I don't want to miss the chance. Shorting MSFT is much safer though, no much upside. 2007-05-06T13:24:34+01:00 http://kispad.hu/mt/beleszolasok.cgi?entry_id=11743 NagyGa1 http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97818#comments http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97817#comments Meanwhile, MSFT's record in expanding beyond its core quasi-monopoly business is pretty dreadful. So the bigger and broader they get, the weaker they are likely to be as a creator of value over the long term. BTW, I'd also say that GOOG is overvalued at a current market cap just under $150 billion; at some point their price-earnings multiple has to come down to that of a maturing business and I just don't see how they are going to be netting $15 billion a year as others creep into their own core business of online ads. Then again, I thought this when their cap was under $100 billion. 2007-05-06T13:03:34+01:00 http://kispad.hu/mt/beleszolasok.cgi?entry_id=11743 Erik http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97817#comments http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97814#comments Interesting. MSFT itself is certainly overvalued on long term. It is already dead as an IT firm for a few years, just takes a few more while it all comes to results - although Vista seems to be the first major sign that the public might recognize. Just like others, e.g. SAP. Both has reserves and has no idea what to do in the future. (I have no data supporting the above. ;)) 2007-05-06T11:30:54+01:00 http://kispad.hu/mt/beleszolasok.cgi?entry_id=11743 NagyGa1 http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97814#comments http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97810#comments NagyGa1 (#6) What's interesting is that when takeovers like this become public knowledge, the stock of the company doing the taking over almost always takes a hit, no matter how good of a deal everyone says it is. One conclusion I have generally drawn from this is that the markets believe that the markets themselves are overvalued, meaning that whoever cashes out is probably the winner. 2007-05-06T10:16:03+01:00 http://kispad.hu/mt/beleszolasok.cgi?entry_id=11743 Erik http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97810#comments http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97807#comments Nem tudom, mire ez a nagy pánik. Nagy Testvér majd vigyáz ránk, megmondja, mit gondoljunk. A renitenseket meg majd a gondolatrendőrség jól elfogja és ketrecbe dugja a patkányok közé (1984). 2007-05-05T22:22:48+01:00 http://kispad.hu/mt/beleszolasok.cgi?entry_id=11743 nyelv-ész http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97807#comments http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97804#comments At the end of the day it was +9.94% for YHOO and -1.32% for MSFT. It seems the market have concluded that the deal is not a good one for MSFT. YHOO owners are hoping for a higher buyout price. 2007-05-05T20:46:18+01:00 http://kispad.hu/mt/beleszolasok.cgi?entry_id=11743 NagyGa1 http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97804#comments http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97765#comments Damn! "Good! Who will produce the WSJ/Financial/Reuters class information ("the news")? " 2007-05-05T00:26:07+01:00 http://kispad.hu/mt/beleszolasok.cgi?entry_id=11743 Dr. Minorka http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97765#comments http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97764#comments Good! Who will produce the WSJ/Financial/Reuters class information ("the news"). Dunno why I mention dept.: Nem akarta fényezni a szponzorokat, inkább felmondott a főszerkesztő http://it.news.hu/c.php?mod=10&id=23435 2007-05-05T00:24:56+01:00 http://kispad.hu/mt/beleszolasok.cgi?entry_id=11743 Dr. Minorka http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97764#comments http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97763#comments What I'm happy about is, that this won't change the world. Billy may have more clicks, more revenue on ads and such, but he will not be able to control what we say, or read. Earlier (on the dawn of the internet) this would have been deadly... The same applies for Rupert. He may control the Wall Street Journal, but the news will still find its way, there are other channels. Hopefully these alternatives will be numerous and fast. I really hope the possibility of total media domination is over. 2007-05-04T23:49:12+01:00 http://kispad.hu/mt/beleszolasok.cgi?entry_id=11743 Prof http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97763#comments http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97760#comments A G AdSense azt reklámozza itt, hogy Kill Bill. Hehe. 2007-05-04T22:27:25+01:00 http://kispad.hu/mt/beleszolasok.cgi?entry_id=11743 Anti http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97760#comments http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97753#comments The Economist is also positive about a potential take-over - possibly also motivated by the fact that it would come after Rupert's failure to acquire Pearson, their own part owner. ;) http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9110781 2007-05-04T19:43:45+01:00 http://kispad.hu/mt/beleszolasok.cgi?entry_id=11743 ervin http://kispad.hu/blog/200705/rupert-and-bill-dont-scare-me.html?97753#comments